Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.2 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | EMC Research | R+8.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lauer Johnson Research | D+3.0 | 13.8 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2006-10-30 | 450 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| Lauer Johnson Research | 2006-10-28 | 400 | D+3.0 | 14 |
| EMC Research | 2006-09-24 | 400 | R+8.0 | 3 |