Actual result
R+5.2
Final polls said
R+4.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 11.2 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-26 | 587 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-20 | 401 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-16 | 559 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-24 | 592 | R+6.0 | 1 |