Democratic
Morgan McGarvey
Incumbent representative for KY-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Morgan McGarvey favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+29.2
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+19.82026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Maria Rodriquez
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KY-3. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KY-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Kentucky's lone Democratic congressman won't attend Trump's State of the Union
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — President Donald Trump will deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. He is expected to highlight domestic and foreign policy issues, like immigration crackdowns, widespread tariffs, military actions and more. Usually in attendance …
Freerepublic.com · February 25, 2026
McGarvey calls for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to be impeached
Kentucky Congressman Morgan McGarvey is calling for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
WLKY Louisville · January 16, 2026
Democratic Representative Says He’s Returning His AIPAC Donations
In the latest indication that ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee are becoming a political liability in Democratic politics, Senate candidate and Democratic Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts publicly parted ways with the lobbying g…
The New Republic · October 16, 2025
Medicaid cuts could threaten senior health program, says McGarvey
Rep. Morgan McGarvey visited the Senior Community Care of Kentucky to learn about how Medicaid and SNAP cuts will impact participants.
WLKY Louisville · August 16, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗