Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
R+0.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+4.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.6 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | D+3.0 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | RT Strategies | D+4.0 | 12.3 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 510 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 996 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 466 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-08 | 459 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-06 | 442 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-17 | 427 | D+4.0 | 12 |