Actual result
R+26.1
Final polls said
R+21.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+21.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+19.8 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-26 | 591 | R+21.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-30 | 632 | R+22.0 | 4 |