Actual result
R+12.1
Final polls said
R+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | OpinionWorks | EVEN | 12.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 18.1 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-18 | 637 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| OpinionWorks | 2010-10-17 | 520 | EVEN | 12 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-29 | 400 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2010-09-20 | 400 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2010-09-12 | 400 | D+6.0 | 18 |