Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
D+1.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
EVEN
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2008-10-07 | 401 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-09-11 | 400 | EVEN | 1 |