Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potomac Incorporated | D+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+4.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potomac Incorporated | 2002-10-27 | 478 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2002-10-17 | 331 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 2002-09-26 | 478 | R+2.0 | 11 |