Actual result
D+18.6
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAConsulting | D+9.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.9 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAConsulting | 2022-10-18 | 300 | D+9.0 | 10 |