Democratic
Debbie Dingell
Incumbent representative for MI-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Michigan District 6 election, 2026
Debbie Dingell vs. Heather Smiley. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Debbie Dingell favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+32.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Heather Smiley
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Linda Rayburn · Working Class
- Timothy A. Tegan · Libertarian
- Clyde Shabazz · Green
- Michael Mickevicius · U.S. Taxpayers
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-6. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Debbie DingellDEM · incumbent$1.5M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $456k6% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$121k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$75k
- Not Reported$44k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$29k
- Retired$16k
States
- MI$229k
- DC$58k
- VA$27k
- FL$16k
- MD$14k
Heather SmileyREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed wins historic Senate race in Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has won one of the marquee battles of the 2026 midterms: the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan.El-Sayed , an unapologetic 42-year-old progressive and the son of Egyptian immigrants, will become America's…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Haley Stevens Rocks Unfortunate Hat to Vote for Mike Rogers
Representative Haley Stevens does not seem to be handling her growing rift with the Democratic Party very well.On Tuesday morning, the Michigan Democrat indicated she was unwilling to speak with the press before diving into a nonsensical diatribe as she march…
The New Republic · November 3, 2026
Dingell on Antisemitism Concerns with El-Sayed: MI Campaign Has Been 'Hateful'
On Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Lead,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) responded to a question on whether there are legitimate concerns among Jewish voters about Democratic Michigan U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, like his association with Hasan Piker and …
Breitbart News · November 3, 2026
Surprise endorsement in Michigan Senate race a 'huge distraction,' says Rep. Dingell
Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens' decision to back Republican Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race has sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party. To discuss the shifting dynamics in the Senate race, Amna Nawaz spoke with Michigan Democratic Congresswoman Debbie …
Biztoc.com · November 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗