Actual result
R+12.0
Final polls said
R+31.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+31.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill Research Consultants | R+31.0 | 19.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+31.1 | 19.2 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill Research Consultants | 2012-10-10 | 302 | R+31.0 | 19 |