VotePredictor
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Michigan District 7 election, 2026

William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
William Lawrence favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+4.0
77%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+1.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+4.0
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+4.0.

Democratic

William Lawrence

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Shane Dedrick · Green

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-14D+8.0
Global Strategy GroupGrade C08-13D+2.0
Data for Progress (via Wikipedia)Grade B+06-30D+2.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Tom BarrettREP · incumbent$8.2M raised
Spent $7.2MCash on hand $1.0MDebts $3k23% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$676k
  2. BARRETT BRIGADE VICTORY FUND$604k
  3. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$281k
  4. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$271k
  5. CIACCIO, JANE$35k

Industries

  1. Retired$1.4M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$245k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$103k
  4. Homemaker$90k
  5. Not Reported$73k

States

  1. MI$534k
  2. FL$242k
  3. CA$219k
  4. TX$203k
  5. NY$132k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
William LawrenceDEM$4.2M raised
Spent $3.5MCash on hand $629kDebts $10k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $13k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ANDREWS, FREDERICK$10k
  2. LAWRENCE, WILLIAM$10k
  3. LAWRENCE, MICHAEL$7k
  4. WILLIAMS, ERICK$7k
  5. BRUCE, CHARLIE$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$296k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$89k
  3. Education & Academia$39k
  4. Government$16k
  5. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$13k

States

  1. MI$343k
  2. CA$76k
  3. NY$52k
  4. DC$50k
  5. AZ$35k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Michigan's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Tom Barrett(R)R+3.7
2022Elissa Slotkin(D)D+5.4
2010Tim Walberg(R)R+4.8
2008Mark Schauer(D)D+2.3
2006Tim Walberg(R)R+4.0

Candidate news

'A mandate for change': Progressive Democrat William Lawrence flips House seat in Michigan

In Michigan's 7th Congressional District, progressive activist William Lawrence unseated Republican Tom Barrett in one of the year's most competitive House races. Lawrence joined Amna Nawaz to discuss the win and what comes next.

Biztoc.com · Yesterday
'A mandate for change': Progressive Democrat William Lawrence flips House seat in Michigan

In Michigan's 7th Congressional District, progressive activist William Lawrence unseated Republican Tom Barrett in one of the year's most competitive House races. Lawrence joined Amna Nawaz to discuss the win and what comes next. PBS News is supported by - ht…

PBS · November 4, 2026
Ex-Democratic Socialist Flips Michigan Seat Trump Carried in 2024

Democrat William Lawrence defeated freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District on Wednesday, according to a race call by the Associated Press. The post Ex-Democratic Socialist Flips Michigan Seat Trump Carried in 2024 appeared fi…

Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Progressive William Lawrence defeats GOP Rep. Tom Barrett in swing Michigan district - NBC News

Progressive William Lawrence defeats GOP Rep. Tom Barrett in swing Michigan districtNBC News Michigan Seventh Congressional District 2026: Live Election Results, Barrett vs. LawrenceThe New York Times William Lawrence Beats GOP Incumbent in MichiganWSJ Lesson…

Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MI-6 · MI-8