Democratic
William Lawrence
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Barrett favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.7
75%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+0.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Tom Barrett
Incumbent representative for MI-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Shane Dedrick · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Global Strategy Group2026-08-13D+2.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump rages at 'Evil Cause' sweeping America — but GOP senator leading the charge anyway
WASHINGTON — The rare 2026 issue that draws huge support from Republicans and Democrats in Congress is the same one that’s mobilized many Americans: restrictions on giant data centers.The House has overwhelmingly passed legislation forcing state regulators to…
Raw Story · Yesterday
AI fears are fueling progressive Democrat's campaign in Michigan battleground district
Will Lawrence, a progressive Democratic congressional candidate in Michigan, is trying to harness unease over the rapid pace of artificial intelligence development to defeat Republican Rep. Tom Barrett
Abcnews.com · September 19, 2026
House Votes for Third Time to End Iran War Thanks to 7 Republicans
For the third time, the House of Representatives said “no” to President Donald Trump’s war with Iran. Seven Republicans voted with Democrats to end the conflict. The Tuesday night vote, which will probably be the last anti-war resolution before the midterm el…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
What Is This Bipartisan Data Center Bill Really About?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonWhat is this bipartisan data center bill really about?On Tuesday, Congress will co…
The New Republic · September 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗