Democratic
Ray Pooley
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Michigan District 9 election, 2026
Ray Pooley vs. Lisa McClain. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Lisa McClain favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+25.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+32.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Lisa McClain
Incumbent representative for MI-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jim Walkowicz · Working Class
- Kevin Vayko · Libertarian
- John Vlahos · U.S. Taxpayers
- Destiny Clayton · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Lisa McClainREP · incumbent$6.0M raised
Spent $4.9MCash on hand $1.8M18% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$117k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$103k
- Legal & Professional Services$63k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$40k
States
- MI$265k
- TX$217k
- FL$206k
- VA$148k
- NY$148k
Ray PooleyDEM$26k raised
Spent $12kCash on hand $14k41% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5k
- Not Reported$2k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$2k
- Retired$750
States
- MI$9k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Lisa McClain launches repeat bid for House GOP conference chair
Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan asked GOP colleagues Wednesday to reelect her as Republican conference chair, the No. 3 House leadership position, promising to “get back in the fight” after Tuesday’s sweeping losses. In a letter obtained first by POLITICO, she …
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Amid Urgent Demand for Oversight, Analysis Details 105 US Lawmakers Personally Invested in the AI Industry
Despite increasingly urgent calls to regulate artificial intelligence, including from industry insiders who warn of potentially catastrophic consequences, the US Congress has continued to drag its feet on meaningful legislation.A report released Friday by Slu…
Common Dreams · September 18, 2026
Republican shrugs off $450K-spend on 'sociopath' candidate: 'Gotta do what's right'
The top-ranking Republican woman in the House of Representatives brushed off concerns that her party will spend $500,000 in an effort to elect a colleague accused of violently abusing his wife and daughter. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI) dismissed her colleagues' c…
Raw Story · September 6, 2026
Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread 6 September 2026
The Talk ShowsSep 7th, 2026Guests to be interviewed today on major television talk shows:FACE THE NATION (CBS): Margaret Brennan anchors: Energy Secretary Chris Wright; Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.); Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.); Ray Washburne, co-founded the M Cr…
Freerepublic.com · September 6, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗