VotePredictor
← all House races

Minnesota District 1 election, 2026

Jake Johnson vs. Brad Finstad. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Brad Finstad favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+2.5
68%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+12.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+1.0
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.6.

Democratic

Jake Johnson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

5 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Public Policy PollingGrade A-10-14EVEN
SurveyUSAGrade A10-09D+2.0
GBAO Strategies09-21D+1.0
Ragnar Research Partners (via Wikipedia)03-14R+10.0
Public Policy Polling (via Wikipedia)Grade A-02-03R+3.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Jake JohnsonDFL$3.5M raised
Spent $2.9MCash on hand $561k28% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. JAKE JOHNSON VICTORY FUND$30k
  2. IMPOSSIBLE TO INEVITABLE$29k
  3. 314 ACTION FUND$10k
  4. AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E$10k
  5. AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION$10k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$832k
  2. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$253k
  3. Retired$143k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$116k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$64k

States

  1. MN$1.5M
  2. NY$129k
  3. CA$114k
  4. MA$51k
  5. WA$45k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Brad FinstadREP · incumbent$2.8M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $604k7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. FINSTAD VICTORY COMMITTEE$233k
  2. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$72k
  3. AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUND$27k
  4. GREATER MINNESOTA VICTORY FUND$15k
  5. FINSTAD VICTORY COMMITTEE$14k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$193k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$46k
  3. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$39k
  4. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$36k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$28k

States

  1. MN$582k
  2. IL$42k
  3. VA$37k
  4. FL$31k
  5. SD$26k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Minnesota's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Brad Finstad(R)R+11.5
2020Jim Hagedorn(R)R+3.1
2018Jim Hagedorn(R)R+0.5
2010Tim Walz(D)D+5.3
2008Tim Walz(D)D+29.6
2006Tim Walz(D)D+5.6

Candidate news

'Cakewalk turned into a knife fight': GOP braces for 'brutal evening' in surprising races

Republicans are bracing for an election night that could bring once-unthinkable losses in deep-red territory, and they're privately debating not whether they’ll lose their House majority, but by how many seats.Six people involved in internal discussions told …

Raw Story · October 30, 2026
'It could be quite a brutal evening': GOP braces for some once-unthinkable losses

Republicans are bracing for a brutal election night, convinced they're set to face some previously unthinkable losses in deep-red Trump territory as key battleground races hang on a knife's edge.House Republicans are privately discussing not just if they'll l…

Yahoo Entertainment · October 30, 2026
GOP Rep. Brad Finstad Runs Attack Ad That Erases Critical Voter From Photo

“What a poor decision,” Beth Benike said of her congressman altering her photo with Democrat Jake Johnson to make a fake image of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

HuffPost · October 8, 2026
Republican survives primary on Tim Walz's old congressional turf as Dems eye seat flip

Brad Finstad faced challengers Gregory Goetzman and Oliver Morlan in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District Republican primary on Tuesday.

Fox News · August 12, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MI-9 · MN-2