Democratic
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Brad Finstad favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+10.9
94%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+11.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Brad Finstad
Incumbent representative for MN-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jake Johnson · DFL
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican survives primary on Tim Walz's old congressional turf as Dems eye seat flip
Brad Finstad faced challengers Gregory Goetzman and Oliver Morlan in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District Republican primary on Tuesday.
Fox News · August 12, 2026
Congressmen Call on Walz, Ellison to Resign
The four Republican House members from Minnesota, Tom Emmer, Pete Stauber, Michelle Fischbach and Brad Finstad, have called on Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison to resign in the wake of the House Oversight Committee’s scathing report on fra…
Power Line · June 10, 2026
Minnesota Republican brutally mocked for copy-paste blunder on social media
A Minnesota Republican lawmaker faced mockery and humiliation on Monday after he completely screwed up his social media statement on talks between Gov. Tim Walz and President Donald Trump to de-escalate the federal crackdown in Minneapolis.Rep. Brad Finstad, …
Raw Story · January 27, 2026
Owatonna, MN Representative Brad Finstad (R-eaping the consequences) dances the Medicaid FAFO [Murica]
Owatonna, MN Representative Brad Finstad (R-eaping the consequences) dances the Medicaid FAFO
Fark.com · October 20, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗