Actual result
D+9.4
Final polls said
D+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | D+10.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mitchell Research & Communications | EVEN | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2008-10-06 | 412 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-04 | 400 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2008-09-15 | 442 | EVEN | 9 |