VotePredictor
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Michigan District 8 election, 2026

Kristen McDonald Rivet vs. Thomas Smith. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Kristen McDonald Rivet favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+6.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+2.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±3.7 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Thomas Smith

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Kathy Goodwin · Working Class
  • Mia C. Pettus · Libertarian
  • Jim Casha · Green

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Kristen McDonald RivetDEM · incumbent$6.9M raised
Spent $4.3MCash on hand $2.7M7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MAJORITY FUND$153k
  2. KMR VICTORY FUND$138k
  3. JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTECTION FUND$62k
  4. TMVVV VICTORY FUND$60k
  5. DEMOCRACY SUMMER 2026$41k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.8M
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$328k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$312k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$124k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$113k

States

  1. MI$1.3M
  2. CA$601k
  3. NY$522k
  4. MA$355k
  5. DC$158k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Thomas SmithREP$561k raised
Spent $476kCash on hand $85kDebts $8k1% from donors under $200Self-funded $8k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. TOM SMITH FOR CONGRESS-GTM NOMINEE FUND: MI-08$175k
  2. GROW THE MAJORITY$46k
  3. TOM SMITH FOR CONGRESS - EMB NOMINEE FUND MI-08$33k
  4. SMITH FOR MI-08 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2026$16k
  5. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$9k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$8k
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
  3. Government$250

States

  1. MI$4k
  2. AR$4k
  3. NM$2k
  4. FL$2k
  5. CA$1k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Michigan's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Daniel T. Kildee(D)D+10.1
2018Elissa Slotkin(D)D+3.8
2016Mike Bishop(R)R+16.9
2000Mike Rogers(R)R+0.1

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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MI-7 · MI-9