Democratic
Erik Osberg
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Minnesota District 7 election, 2026
Erik Osberg vs. Michelle Fischbach. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Michelle Fischbach favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+29.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+36.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Michelle Fischbach
Incumbent representative for MN-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-7. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Michelle FischbachREP · incumbent$1.7M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $866k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$139k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$28k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$28k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$15k
- Legal & Professional Services$13k
States
- MN$243k
- IL$33k
- VA$28k
- TX$19k
- SD$16k
Erik OsbergDFL$577k raised
Spent $450kCash on hand $127kDebts $5k38% from donors under $200Self-funded $19k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$102k
- Retired$72k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$30k
- Not Reported$13k
- Government$2k
States
- MN$286k
- CA$16k
- GA$4k
- TN$1k
- IL$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
WATCH LIVE: Rep. Fischbach, challenger Osberg face off in Minnesota U.S. House debate
Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach will face Democratic challenger and small business owner Erik Osberg on the debate stage Thursday.
Biztoc.com · October 15, 2026
Congressmen Call on Walz, Ellison to Resign
The four Republican House members from Minnesota, Tom Emmer, Pete Stauber, Michelle Fischbach and Brad Finstad, have called on Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison to resign in the wake of the House Oversight Committee’s scathing report on fra…
Power Line · June 10, 2026
Here’s the Name of Every Republican Who Voted to Kill Epstein Bill
In an 8–4 party-line vote Tuesday, Republicans on the House Rules Committee shot down a bid to put the Epstein Files Transparency Act—which would compel the Justice Department to release all unclassified records related to Jeffrey Epstein—to a floor vote. The…
The New Republic · September 9, 2025
Republicans just blocked a vote on the release of the Epstein files before it could happen
The results of a House Rules Committee hearing on Monday are sure to upset some of the GOP base.Rep. James McGovern (D-Mass.) put forward an amendment from fellow Democrat Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.) that would have continued the congressional saga of the infamou…
TheBlaze · July 15, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗