Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
D+4.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.3 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+24.0 | 15.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2014-10-13 | 300 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-05 | 545 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-09-22 | 402 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-09-06 | 405 | D+24.0 | 15 |