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Toss-up · 2018 House
Minnesota House
In the 2018 Minnesota House race, Collin Peterson (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.3
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+18.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 66% | 0.113 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Impact Research2018-09-0714
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Minnesota House race?
Collin Peterson (D) won, by about 4.3 points (D+4.3).
When was the 2018 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.