Actual result
D+4.3
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+14.6 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+18.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.114 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2018-09-07 | 500 | D+18.0 | 14 |