Democratic
Kimberly Hardy
Major-party general-election nominee.
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North Carolina District 7 election, 2026
Kimberly Hardy vs. David Rouzer on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
David Rouzer favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+8.0
90%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+13.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+6.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+9.2.
Republican
David Rouzer
Incumbent representative for NC-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Maad Abu-Ghazalah · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026David RouzerREP · incumbent$2.5M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $1.7M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$116k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$88k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$59k
- Legal & Professional Services$38k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$32k
States
- NC$509k
- VA$114k
- FL$62k
- DC$41k
- CA$33k
Kimberly HardyDEM$390k raised
Spent $370kCash on hand $20k32% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$161k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$23k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$10k
- Technology & Communications$6k
- Education & Academia$4k
States
- NC$169k
- CA$27k
- CT$9k
- MD$8k
- WA$6k
Maad Abu-GhazalahLIB$9k raised
Spent $9kCash on hand $279Debts $2k4% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ABU-GHAZALAH, MAAD$4k
- COOK, ROGER$2k
- DRACH, BOB$500
- STERLING, WILLIAM$250
Industries
- Retired$2k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$500
- Not Reported$250
States
- NC$3k
- MT$250
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in North Carolina's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Trump staff supplied applause during 'overtly political' speech to silent service members
Donald Trump's appearance at Ft. Bragg military base in North Carolina on Friday was met with a muted response from attending service members that put local GOP officials and the president’s staff in the position of of having to show enthusiasm for his remark…
Raw Story · February 14, 2026
Exclusive—Rep. David Rouzer: It's Time for Congress to Protect American Roads from Foreign Truckers
As a conservative, I believe in the rule of law, national security, and the safety of the American people, which is why I introduced the Non-Domiciled CDL Integrity Act to remove foreign truckers from our roadways. The post Exclusive—Rep. David Rouzer: It’s T…
Breitbart News · October 22, 2025
The Most Terrifying Answer in Trump’s Budget Chief Hearing
Senators on both sides of the aisle took issue Wednesday with Donald Trump’s nominee to run the Office of Management and Budget, noting that Russell Vought’s evasive and bureaucratic nonanswers as to whether he’d obey the law while serving the country were al…
The New Republic · January 15, 2025
Trump agenda to axe Department of Education finds solid backing in North Carolina: Here’s what happened
Representative David Rouzer from North Carolina introduced a bill, H.R. 369, to abolish the U.S. Department of Education, a key part of Donald Trump’s "Project 2025" agenda. The proposal, which aims to redirect $200 billion, has sparked intense debate over th…
The Times of India · January 15, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗