Actual result
D+7.4
Final polls said
D+4.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.6 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | D+2.8 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-14 | 2477 | D+2.8 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-10-04 | 400 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-25 | 450 | R+1.0 | 8 |