Actual result
D+0.2
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Clout Research | R+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clout Research | 2012-10-23 | 600 | R+6.0 | 6 |