Democratic
Richard Ojeda
Major-party general-election nominee.
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North Carolina District 9 election, 2026
Richard Ojeda vs. Richard Hudson on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Richard Hudson favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+7.1
91%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+16.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging R+4.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+10.7.
Republican
Richard Hudson
Incumbent representative for NC-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Richard HudsonREP · incumbent$4.2M raised
Spent $3.9MCash on hand $926k17% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$145k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$58k
- Legal & Professional Services$55k
- Not Reported$53k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$47k
States
- NC$360k
- VA$101k
- TX$83k
- DC$54k
- NY$53k
Richard OjedaDEM$2.9M raised
Spent $2.9MCash on hand $46k80% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$361k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$33k
- Retired$26k
- Technology & Communications$13k
- Legal & Professional Services$9k
States
- CA$109k
- NC$95k
- FL$41k
- PA$32k
- NY$29k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NC-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in North Carolina's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Republicans in North Carolina Lose 4 More House Seats
“Several House Republicans from North Carolina are in danger of losing their seats and joining four GOP lawmakers who lost reelection in a once reliably red state that is now handing their party some of its biggest losses this cycle,” the Washington Post repo…
Politicalwire.com · Today
Trumpworld 'cockroaches' served warning by GOP operatives after hitting 'rock bottom'
Republican operatives are tearing into President Donald Trump’s inner circle after Tuesday’s historic midterm losses, and some are saying out loud that the people responsible deserve to be cast out.“In any civilized society, we would set them on an ice floe a…
Raw Story · November 4, 2026
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson Falls To Democrat Richard Ojeda In North Carolina
Republicans have held the state’s 9th Congressional District since 1963.
HuffPost · November 4, 2026
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson concedes his race for reelection in North Carolina
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the GOP’s House campaign arm, conceded his race for reelection, he confirmed in a statement shortly after POLITICO reported the decision. The AP has not yet called the race. But the decision is a stark sign of just h…
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗