Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
D+1.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.4
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | co/efficient | EVEN | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Impact Research | EVEN | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs | D+5.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 2019-09-05 | 1175 | EVEN | 2 |
| Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs | 2019-08-27 | 551 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| RRH Elections | 2019-08-27 | 500 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2019-07-17 | 450 | EVEN | 2 |