VotePredictor
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North Dakota District 1 election, 2026

Trygve Hammer vs. Julie Fedorchak.

VotePredictor forecast
Julie Fedorchak favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+31.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+37.0
2026 national environment
D+6.6
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Trygve Hammer

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Helene Neville · Independent
  • Charles Tuttle · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for ND-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for ND-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in North Dakota's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Kelly Armstrong(R)D+24.6
2018Kelly Armstrong(R)R+24.6
2014Kevin Cramer(R)R+17.1
2012Kevin Cramer(R)R+13.2
2010Rick Berg(R)R+9.8
2008Earl Pomeroy(D)D+23.9
2004Earl Pomeroy(D)D+19.1
2002Earl Pomeroy(D)D+4.8
1998Earl Pomeroy(D)D+15.1

Candidate news

WATCH LIVE: U.S. House candidates set to debate in North Dakota, without incumbent Fedorchak

Even though she's running for reelection, North Dakota incumbent Rep. Julie Fedorchak is not expected to appear for a debate Thursday between candidates vying for the state's sole U.S. House seat.

Biztoc.com · October 8, 2026
Mike Johnson hit with GOP revolt in fiery caucus call over 'damaging' move

A private call among House Republicans has exposed cracks developing within Speaker Mike Johnson's strategy for handling the ongoing government shutdown.MSNBC.com reported that at least three Republicans pushed back during a GOP caucus phone call on Thursday …

Raw Story · October 9, 2025
Member of Congress says she was assaulted by gang of youth before Trump DC takeover

Rep. Julie Fedorchak, R-N.D., condemned “out of control" violence in the nation’s capital city. She said she was assaulted by a gang of youth in the streets of Washington, D.C.

Fox News · September 2, 2025
Rep. Julie Fedorchak says Trump is doing what North Dakota elected him to do in virtual town hall

Callers shared concerns ranging from cuts to social security, Medicaid and education funding to international relationships and trade policy.

INFORUM · March 26, 2025

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NC-9 · NE-1