Democratic
Pat Ryan
Incumbent representative for NY-18. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Pat Ryan favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+9.0
93%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+3.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jacqueline Auringer
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-18. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-18; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 18th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Dem Rep. Pat Ryan silent over rival’s claims he sends kids to DC school while calling NY home
A Republican candidate for Congress in the Hudson Valley is accusing Democratic incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan of sending his kids to schools in the D.C. area instead of in his district.
New York Post · October 5, 2026
Buckle Up, Whiskey Pete. Your Worst Nightmare Is Coming For You.
November's midterm elections are right around the corner, and Republicans are slated to have their asses handed to them in both branches of Congress as the Democratic Party maintains a significant lead over the GOP. Now, Democrats are making it perfectly clea…
Crooksandliars.com · September 10, 2026
Top Democrats Called Out for Silence Over Racist Push for Mamdani to Skip 9/11 Memorial
Ahead of the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks on New York City and Washington, DC, progressives this week have expressed appreciation for the few Democratic leaders who have defended Mayor Zohran Mamdani against openly Islamophobic attacks from ri…
Common Dreams · September 9, 2026
Hegseth’s Army Purges Have Undermined Military Leadership on Iran
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s decision to fire numerous top generals has put America’s military between a rock and a hard place in its war against Iran.The Army has been without a chief of staff since Hegseth fired General Randy George in April; he has for…
The New Republic · August 25, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗