Democratic
Pat Ryan
Incumbent representative for NY-18. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Pat Ryan favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+26.4
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+4.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jacqueline Auringer
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-18. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-18; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 18th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Buckle Up, Whiskey Pete. Your Worst Nightmare Is Coming For You.
November's midterm elections are right around the corner, and Republicans are slated to have their asses handed to them in both branches of Congress as the Democratic Party maintains a significant lead over the GOP. Now, Democrats are making it perfectly clea…
Crooksandliars.com · September 10, 2026
Top Democrats Called Out for Silence Over Racist Push for Mamdani to Skip 9/11 Memorial
Ahead of the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks on New York City and Washington, DC, progressives this week have expressed appreciation for the few Democratic leaders who have defended Mayor Zohran Mamdani against openly Islamophobic attacks from ri…
Common Dreams · September 9, 2026
Hegseth’s Army Purges Have Undermined Military Leadership on Iran
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s decision to fire numerous top generals has put America’s military between a rock and a hard place in its war against Iran.The Army has been without a chief of staff since Hegseth fired General Randy George in April; he has for…
The New Republic · August 25, 2026
Trump privately apologized for Hegseth axing top general after GOP senator's earful: NYT
President Trump privately distanced himself from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's firing spree at the Pentagon, apologizing to a senator on behalf of a four-star general Hegseth axed without explanation, even as the purge leaves the Army without a permanent l…
Raw Story · August 25, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗