Democratic
Pat Ryan
Incumbent representative for NY-18. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Pat Ryan favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+4.52026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jacqueline Auringer
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-18. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-18; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Democrats’ Plan for Ending the Iran War
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 22, 2026
The Lawmakers Fighting to Modernize the Pentagon
Congress rarely moves fast, but Reps. Rob Wittman and Pat Ryan are trying to change that. The two lawmakers founded the bipartisan House Defense Modernization Caucus in 2024 and have driven reforms through two consecutive defense authorization acts, targeting…
War on the Rocks · June 8, 2026
3652 - Trump Lost the War, Can he End it?
It's news day Tuesdy on The Majority Report On today's program: Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) calls House Republicans chickenhawks as they adjourn for a long weekend without voting on the War Powers Resolution after realizing they did not have enough votes. Trump post…
Libsyn.com · May 26, 2026
Hegseth Accuses Troops of Lying as He’s Faced With Facts on Iran War
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is continuing to lie about an Iranian drone strike that killed six U.S. service members in early March, and now he’s lashing out at the survivors of the blast too.After the missile struck the troop base, the defense secretary mi…
The New Republic · April 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗