Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
R+2.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+7.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+21.0 | 21.9 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2009-03-25 | 917 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2009-03-09 | 712 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2009-02-24 | 400 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2009-02-18 | 710 | R+12.0 | 13 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2009-02-03 | 400 | R+21.0 | 22 |