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Toss-up · 2009 House
New York House
In the 2009 New York House race, Scott Murphy (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
R+2.3
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+7.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+21.0 | 21.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2009-03-253
Siena College2009-03-095
Benenson Strategy Group2009-02-248
Siena College2009-02-1813
Public Opinion Strategies2009-02-0322
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2009 New York House race?
Scott Murphy (D) won, by about 0.9 points (D+0.9).
When was the 2009 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2009.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.