Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
R+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.2
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.2 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Siena College | R+9.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Grove Insight | D+13.0 | 14.5 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2010-10-24 | 676 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-17 | 400 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-29 | 400 | D+13.0 | 15 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-27 | 400 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2010-09-13 | 603 | D+17.0 | 19 |