Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+1.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+11.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+3.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+3.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2006-11-01 | 628 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1040 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-10-24 | 400 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2006-10-17 | 404 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Siena College | 2006-10-16 | 628 | R+14.0 | 23 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-10-13 | 400 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+13.0 | 4 |