Democratic
Tom Suozzi
Incumbent representative for NY-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Suozzi favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.0
71%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+4.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mike LiPetri
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Police, firefighter unions back Dem NY Rep. Tom Suozzi — after Trump-linked Super PAC spends $8M on attack ads
Key unions representing Nassau County police officers and New York City firefighters are backing Long Island Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi's re-election bid.
New York Post · October 4, 2026
‘Moderate’ NY Congressman Says The Quiet Part Out Loud: Amnesty for 10 Million Criminal Illegals (Watch!)
Congressman Tom Suozzi is making waves for a two-sentence clip that has now gone wildly viral. The New York Democrat has been consistently inconsistent on his immigration stance for years now. But he left no political wiggle room with these two sentences, as …
Freerepublic.com · September 28, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗