Democratic
Tom Suozzi
Incumbent representative for NY-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New York District 3 election, 2026
Tom Suozzi vs. Mike LiPetri. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Suozzi favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+5.7
93%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+4.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±3.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mike LiPetri
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Tom SuozziDEM · incumbent$7.6M raised
Spent $6.4MCash on hand $3.2M4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$908k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$408k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$384k
- Legal & Professional Services$86k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$64k
States
- NY$2.0M
- CA$389k
- FL$243k
- MA$173k
- CT$109k
Mike LiPetriREP$2.6M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $457kDebts $49k18% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- TEAM MIKE$347k
- GROW THE MAJORITY$276k
- EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$107k
- DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$76k
- GTM NOMINEE FUND: NY-03$68k
Industries
- Retired$82k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$48k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$12k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$11k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$7k
States
- NY$153k
- TX$34k
- MI$15k
- FL$13k
- MA$11k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Republican Challenger in New York Makes Final Push in Key Race for House Control
A Republican challenging a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in one of the nation’s most competitive House races is touting a key endorsements. Mike LiPetri, a former New York state assembly member is heavily backed by President Donald Trump in his contest agai…
Fox News · October 22, 2026
Rep. Tom Suozzi snubbed by Long Island hometown cops as union backs GOP opponent
Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Suozzi's hometown police officers are abandoning him and backing Republican rival Michael LiPetri for Congress.
New York Post · October 20, 2026
Long Island Dem Tom Suozzi blows off Hochul campaign event as party snubs mount
Dems the breaks. Rep. Tom Suozzi will snub a Long Island campaign event with Gov. Kathy Hochul on Saturday because of a scheduling clash — as other down-ballot New York Democrats distance themselves from the unpopular Empire State leader. Suozzi’s campaign to…
Freerepublic.com · October 17, 2026
Police, firefighter unions back Dem NY Rep. Tom Suozzi — after Trump-linked Super PAC spends $8M on attack ads
Key unions representing Nassau County police officers and New York City firefighters are backing Long Island Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi's re-election bid.
New York Post · October 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗