Actual result
D+11.7
Final polls said
D+3.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+17.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Clout Research | EVEN | 11.7 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2016-10-31 | 614 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Clout Research | 2016-10-16 | 602 | EVEN | 12 |
| Siena College | 2016-10-02 | 613 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| GBAO | 2016-09-20 | 400 | D+17.0 | 5 |