Democratic
Tim Kennedy
Incumbent representative for NY-26. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Tim Kennedy favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+25.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+19.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Dennis Hannon
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-26. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-26; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 26th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Erik Prince's private forces ambushed in Congo with former UFC fighter among wounded
By Jessica DonatiDAKAR, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Blackwater founder Erik Prince's forces suffered a major battlefield loss in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in mid-September when enemy forces ambushed them, killing and wounding at least 20 people, including a …
Yahoo Entertainment · October 9, 2026
Why this U.S. congressman is fighting back on Donald Trump's renaming of Lake Ontario
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America” last week, but not all Americans are happy with the change — including some in the United States House of Representatives. Democratic Rep. Tim Kennedy of New York, al…
CBC News · September 1, 2026
House Democrats Draft Bills to Overturn Trump Lake Order
House Democrats are moving to blunt President Trump's order to rechristen Lake Ontario as "Lake America." New York Rep. Tim Kennedy, who co-chairs the Northern Border Caucus, says he is drafting legislation to counter Thursday's executive order, which directs…
Newser · August 28, 2026
Top FEMA Official Doubles Down on Claim He Teleported to Waffle House
A Trump administration official continues to insist that he once teleported to a Waffle House despite being mocked. As CNN reported in late March, Phillips has spoken on multiple podcasts about his teleportation activities, which include having gone to a chur…
The New Republic · April 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗