Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
R+11.5
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+18.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SoonerPoll.com | R+11.5 | 12.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | VCreek/AMG | R+16.0 | 17.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+18.6 | 20.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 92% | 0.851 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.865 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 96% | 0.927 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.964 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | 2018-10-29 | 440 | R+11.5 | 13 |
| VCreek/AMG | 2018-10-14 | 974 | R+16.0 | 17 |
| VCreek/AMG | 2018-09-24 | 1407 | R+13.0 | 14 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2018-09-20 | 303 | R+10.0 | 11 |