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Toss-up · 2018 House
Oklahoma House
In the 2018 Oklahoma House race, Kendra Horn (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
R+11.5
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SoonerPoll.com | R+11.5 | 12.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | VCreek/AMG | R+16.0 | 17.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 92% | 0.851 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.865 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 96% | 0.912 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.964 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SoonerPoll.com2018-10-2913
VCreek/AMG2018-10-1417
VCreek/AMG2018-09-2414
SoonerPoll.com2018-09-2011
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Oklahoma House race?
Kendra Horn (D) won, by about 1.4 points (D+1.4).
When was the 2018 Oklahoma House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.