VotePredictor
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Oregon District 1 election, 2026

Suzanne Bonamici vs. Barbara Kahl.

VotePredictor forecast
Suzanne Bonamici favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+45.2
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+38.2
2026 national environment
D+6.3
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Republican

Barbara Kahl

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OR-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OR-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in Oregon's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2010David Wu(D)D+12.8
1998David Wu(D)D+3.0

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: OK-5 · OR-2