Actual result
D+14.2
Final polls said
D+8.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+11.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+6.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Moore Information Group | D+4.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group | 2012-01-11 | 300 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2011-12-28 | 504 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-12-13 | 979 | D+11.0 | 3 |