Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elway Research | D+13.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.6 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | D+6.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | 2010-10-20 | 400 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-17 | 602 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-13 | 2065 | D+6.4 | 6 |