Democratic
Bob Harvie
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Brian Fitzpatrick favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+12.6
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+1.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Brian Fitzpatrick
Incumbent representative for PA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
GQR2026-08-23R+1.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
This swing state Republican keeps distancing himself from Trump. It may not save him in the midterms
YARDLEY, Pa. (AP) — Mary Ryan may be a registered Republican but she has never voted for President Donald Trump, turned off by his crass style of politics and chaotic approach to governing. But the 60-year-old medical writer from the Philadelphia suburbs has …
Freerepublic.com · September 19, 2026
'We Cannot Wait for Disaster to Strike': Beyer Leads Bipartisan Push in House to Urgently Regulate AI
A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives on Wednesday released a joint letter urging congressional leaders to take immediate action to regulate the artificial intelligence industry.The group, led by Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), urged …
Common Dreams · September 16, 2026
House Votes for Third Time to End Iran War Thanks to 7 Republicans
For the third time, the House of Representatives said “no” to President Donald Trump’s war with Iran. Seven Republicans voted with Democrats to end the conflict. The Tuesday night vote, which will probably be the last anti-war resolution before the midterm el…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
One of the most controversial campaign ads of 2026 leads to a new lawsuit
In the current Congress, the number of House Republicans willing to break party ranks on key issues has been vanishingly small, but Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania tends to be one of them, and there’s no great mystery as to why. The GOP congressman rep…
Biztoc.com · August 13, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗