Democratic
Bob Harvie
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Bob Harvie favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+2.0
63%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+0.32026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+1.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+4.0.
Republican
Brian Fitzpatrick
Incumbent representative for PA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
GQR2026-08-23R+1.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
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The New Republic · October 13, 2026
House Republicans Move to Block Trump's Russian Diesel Deal
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OilPrice.com · October 12, 2026
Foreign money is pouring into ballot battles. Half the states aren’t ready.
Foreign billionaires and well-funded nongovernmental organizations can use a gap in federal election law to pour money into state ballot-measure campaigns. Half the states have yet to ban the practice, and some of those that have acted still leave openings fo…
TheBlaze · October 12, 2026
House Republicans Move To Block Trump's Russia Diesel Deal
Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick plans to force a House vote on legislation blocking Russian oil purchases, challenging President Donald Trump's decision to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports as lawmakers warn the move could help finance M…
Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty · October 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗