Democratic
Bob Harvie
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Pennsylvania District 1 election, 2026
Bob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bob Harvie favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.1
59%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+0.32026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
4, averaging R+2.0Forecast spread
±5.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 4 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said D+5.5.
Republican
Brian Fitzpatrick
Incumbent representative for PA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Brian FitzpatrickREP · incumbent$8.0M raised
Spent $11.7MCash on hand $709kDebts $25k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$331k
- Retired$278k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$174k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$120k
- Legal & Professional Services$67k
States
- CA$263k
- NY$243k
- FL$198k
- PA$181k
- NJ$112k
Bob HarvieDEM$3.2M raised
Spent $2.8MCash on hand $409k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.2M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$262k
- Education & Academia$50k
- Legal & Professional Services$46k
- Technology & Communications$46k
States
- PA$1.2M
- CA$329k
- NY$108k
- MA$86k
- WA$51k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Fox News star Jacqui Heinrich shares emotional message to husband Brian Fitzpatrick as he loses Congress seat
In a post shared to Instagram, she praised him for 'caring deeply' as she reflected on the 'quiet sacrifices' he made.
Dailymail.com · November 4, 2026
'Unlawful' flaw risks sinking Trump's Russia deal as diesel tanker nears US port
Critics have exposed a little-known flaw in President Donald Trump’s "unlawful" diesel deal with Russia that threatens to scare off the banks and ports needed to bring the fuel ashore.Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), five other Democrats and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC…
Raw Story · October 26, 2026
Can GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate who's bucked Trump, keep his Pennsylvania swing seat?
Over nearly 10 years in Congress, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has cultivated an image as a middle-of-the-road GOP lawmaker who operates above the partisan fray and is willing to buck President Donald Trump. It's a formula that has allowed Fitzpatrick, who is among…
Biztoc.com · October 26, 2026
Can GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate who's bucked Trump, keep his Pennsylvania swing seat?
GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has consistently won his Pennsylvania swing seat, but Democrats say this election is an opportunity to oust the veteran lawmaker.
CNBC · October 26, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗