VotePredictor
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Pennsylvania District 10 election, 2026

Janelle Stelson vs. Scott Perry. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Janelle Stelson favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.2
59%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+5.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
4, averaging D+1.9
Forecast spread
±5.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 4 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said D+0.2.

Democratic

Janelle Stelson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

5 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23D+3.0
New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University (via Wikipedia)10-22EVEN
Susquehanna Polling & Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B10-11D+3.0
Franklin & Marshall College (via Wikipedia)Grade A-09-20D+3.0
Normington Petts (via Wikipedia)Grade B-04-23D+6.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Janelle StelsonDEM$9.2M raised
Spent $7.2MCash on hand $2.1M17% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 2026$740k
  2. DEM RISING 2026$83k
  3. STELSON VICTORY FUND$71k
  4. COGNETTI STELSON VICTORY FUND$66k
  5. FLIPPABLE FOUR VICTORY FUND$49k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$3.0M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$492k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$227k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$157k
  5. Education & Academia$134k

States

  1. PA$2.1M
  2. CA$957k
  3. NY$606k
  4. MA$432k
  5. MD$226k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Scott PerryREP · incumbent$6.8M raised
Spent $5.8MCash on hand $1.0MDebts $194k27% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$775k
  2. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$297k
  3. TEAM PERRY VICTORY COMMITTEE$187k
  4. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$176k
  5. BATTLEGROUND PA$111k

Industries

  1. Retired$1.7M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$79k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$51k
  4. Homemaker$45k
  5. Manufacturing & Industrial$34k

States

  1. PA$710k
  2. FL$210k
  3. CA$208k
  4. TX$192k
  5. NJ$84k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Pennsylvania's 10th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2020Scott Perry(R)R+6.6
2018Scott Perry(R)R+2.6
2014Tom Marino(R)R+37.8
2010Tom Marino(R)R+10.3
2008Christopher P. Carney(D)D+12.7
2006Christopher P. Carney(D)D+5.9
1998Donald L. Sherwood(R)R+0.3

Candidate news

Transcript: Trump Presidency on Life Support as Blue Wave Drowns MAGA

The following is a lightly edited transcript of the November 4 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.In a stunn…

The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Suddenly, MAGA’s Biggest Players in the House Are in Danger of Defeat

Here’s a potentially momentous development for you: The electoral map appears to have deteriorated so badly for Republicans that a number of MAGA’s biggest personalities in the House may be on the verge of a loss. This even includes a couple of House Republic…

The New Republic · November 2, 2026
Exclusive – Rep. Scott Perry: Gov. Josh Shapiro Envisions Himself 'Running for President,' 'That's What He's Gearing Up For'

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) envisions himself "running for president," Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), up for reelection in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. The post Exclusive – Rep. Scott Perry: G…

Breitbart News · October 23, 2026
GOP's favorite get-out-the-vote guru has a felon problem in a key swing state: report

One of the Republican Party’s best-known voter-registration activists has reportedly paid at least two people with serious criminal records to run get-out-the-vote operations in Pennsylvania, according to a new investigation.The Bulwark reported Friday that G…

Raw Story · October 16, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: PA-1 · PA-11