Democratic
Justin Wagner
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Pennsylvania District 16 election, 2026
Justin Wagner vs. Mike Kelly. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Kelly favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mike Kelly
Incumbent representative for PA-16. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-16. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike KellyREP · incumbent$1.4M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $1.0MDebts $90k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$31k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$30k
- Legal & Professional Services$25k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$23k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
States
- PA$87k
- VA$46k
- NY$32k
- CA$30k
- TX$23k
Justin WagnerDEM$247k raised
Spent $189kCash on hand $63k32% from donors under $200Self-funded $620
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$104k
- Retired$3k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$3k
- Not Reported$2k
States
- PA$132k
- MD$10k
- AA$3k
- CO$1k
- VA$750
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Convicted pedophile and Trump insiders handed Congress access in credentialing mess
EDITOR'S NOTE: Raw Story writer Matt Laslo's congressional bureau, The LCB , has been credentialed by the Radio-Television Correspondents' Association (RTCA) since 2012.WASHINGTON — America's most powerful TV networks have been handing out coveted congressio…
Raw Story · June 1, 2026
Teamsters pour money into GOP, shifting away from Dems (Adam Wren/Politico)
Adam Wren / Politico: Teamsters pour money into GOP, shifting away from Dems … - Rob Bresnahan, Mike Kelly and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania — Pete Stauber and Tom Emmer of Minnesota — Nicole Malliotakis, Andrew Garbarino, Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler of…
Memeorandum.com · August 11, 2025
Rep. Mike Kelly's District Office Vandalized: 'Political Violence and Vandalism Are Never Acceptable'
Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA) revealed that his district office in Hermitage, Pennsylvania, was vandalized and noted that "political violence and vandalism are never acceptable." The post Rep. Mike Kelly’s District Office Vandalized: ‘Political Violence and Vandalis…
Breitbart News · July 27, 2025
REP. MIKE KELLY, SEN. TIM SCOTT AND SECRETARY SCOTT TURNER: Save the Opportunity Zones before it’s too late
There's still time to save Opportunity Zones and Congress should act. That's why Rep. Mike Kelly, Sen. Tim Scott and Secretary Scott Turner are working together to help areas in need.
Fox News · April 30, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗