South Carolina District 1 election, 2026

Nancy Lacore vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt.

VotePredictor forecast

Jenny Costa Honeycutt favored

Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.8

60%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+12.0

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Nancy Lacore

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Bill Reeside · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

GQR2026-07-22R+2.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for SC-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in South Carolina's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2020Nancy Mace(R)R+1.3

2013Mark Sanford(R)R+12.2

2008Henry E. Brown(R)R+4.0

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: RI-2 · SC-2