Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
R+0.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.1
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | RRH Elections | EVEN | 12.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | D+0.5 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | D+3.0 | 15.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.1 | 16.3 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-05-04 | 1239 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| ccAdvertising | 2013-04-30 | 1807 | D+0.5 | 13 |
| RRH Elections | 2013-04-30 | 650 | EVEN | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-04-20 | 796 | D+9.0 | 21 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2013-03-26 | 500 | D+3.0 | 15 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-03-23 | 1175 | D+2.0 | 14 |