Democratic
Lizzie Fletcher
Incumbent representative for TX-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Texas District 7 election, 2026
Lizzie Fletcher vs. Alexander Hale on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Lizzie Fletcher favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+24.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Alexander Hale
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Espoir Ngabo · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-7. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Lizzie FletcherDEM · incumbent$1.8M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $1.5M2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$73k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$29k
- Legal & Professional Services$24k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$20k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$19k
States
- TX$203k
- NY$17k
- DC$17k
- VA$12k
- TN$7k
Alexander HaleREP$116k raised
Spent $97kCash on hand $19kDebts $12k6% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$49k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$6k
- Legal & Professional Services$4k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$520
States
- TX$94k
- CO$4k
- AZ$1k
- LA$1k
- GA$750
Espoir NgaboGRE$3k raised
Spent $3kCash on hand $024% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- NGABO, ESPOIR$1k
- STAPLETON, EDWARD$843
- BETH, JUSTIN$527
States
- TX$843
- ME$527
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗