Actual result
R+13.5
Final polls said
R+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+7.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | R+5.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2008-10-22 | 400 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-21 | 421 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2008-09-08 | 500 | R+7.0 | 7 |