Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
R+10.7
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | R+8.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 10.3 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-29 | 406 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| Ward Research | 1998-10-22 | 480 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-18 | 406 | R+15.0 | 16 |
| Ward Research | 1998-09-11 | 800 | R+14.0 | 15 |