VotePredictor
past elections

Hawaii Governor

Benjamin Cayetano (D) vs Linda Lingle (R)

Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
R+10.7
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Ward ResearchR+8.09.3
2Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyR+9.010.3

Polls (4)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy1998-10-29406R+9.010
Ward Research1998-10-22480R+8.09
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy1998-10-18406R+15.016
Ward Research1998-09-11800R+14.015