Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
R+13.6
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KRC Research | R+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+14.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | R+14.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | R+15.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Richard Day Research | R+21.0 | 17.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | WCIA-TV | R+26.0 | 22.4 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 847 | R+14.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-28 | 703 | R+14.0 | 10 |
| Richard Day Research | 1998-10-26 | 712 | R+21.0 | 17 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-25 | 813 | R+11.0 | 7 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1209 | R+18.0 | 14 |
| KRC Research | 1998-10-19 | 400 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 1998-10-19 | 1099 | R+15.0 | 11 |
| WCIA-TV | 1998-10-14 | 401 | R+26.0 | 22 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-11 | 830 | R+15.0 | 11 |
| Richard Day Research | 1998-10-09 | 905 | R+25.0 | 21 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 1998-10-05 | 1099 | R+21.0 | 17 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 1998-09-21 | 1099 | R+22.0 | 18 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-13 | 811 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| KRC Research | 1998-09-09 | 499 | R+18.0 | 14 |