Illinois Senate
Juliana Stratton (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Illinois Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 16 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+15.6 — a 100% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
- Black Folks Built Wealthy Neighborhoods Across America—Where Are They Now?
From Black Wall Streets and affluent neighborhoods to thriving business districts, Black Americans built powerful networks where ownership, entrepreneurship and prosperity could flourish. But for many of these communities, that prosperity would come under thr…
The Root · August 13, 2026 
Juliana Stratton’s Big Senate Win, Kristi Noem’s Next Steps and the Origins of Women’s History MonthWeekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and …
Ms. Magazine · March 21, 2026
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker Faces Backlash From Black Leaders After Helping Black Woman Get ElectedWith backing from Governor J.B. Pritzker, Juliana Stratton, his number 2, handily defeated black candidate Rep. Robin Kelly, the Congressional Black Caucus pick.
The Daily Caller · March 19, 2026- Dem Illinois Senate candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi slammed for selling $13 water while preaching ‘affordability’ in campaign
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., is facing online mockery after his Senate campaign’s election night watch party charged customers exorbitant prices for water, despite claiming to champion affordability issues. Krishnamoorthi, a five-term House lawmaker, nar…
Freerepublic.com · March 19, 2026 - Pritzker helped a Black woman become senator. Some Black leaders are still mad at him. - Politico
Pritzker helped a Black woman become senator. Some Black leaders are still mad at him.Politico Takeaways from the Illinois primary electionsCNN Juliana Stratton wins Illinois Democratic primary for US SenateBBC Illinois Senate Primary Election 2026 Live Resul…
Slashdot.org · March 19, 2026
Takeaways from Illinois primary electionsThe matchup is set for November's general election to replace longtime Sen. Dick Durbin in Illinois. CBS News projects that Lieutenant Gov. Juliana Stratton will come out on top in the Democratic Party's primary election. She will face off against former Repu…
CBS News · March 18, 2026
Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton expected to face Republican Don Tracy for Sen. Durbin's seatIllinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is projected to go up against Republican Don Tracy in November to win retiring Sen. Dick Durbin's seat. CBS News political director Fin Gomez has more details.
CBS News · March 18, 2026
Race heats up for Sen. Dick Durbin's seat as Lt. Gov. Stratton set to face Republican Don TracyTuesday's Illinois primaries left two frontrunners projected to face off in November for retiring Sen. Dick Durbin's seat. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is expected to run against Republican Don Tracy. CBS News' Fin Gomez has more.
CBS News · March 18, 2026
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker to Face GOP’s Darren Bailey in NovemberIllinois Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker is aiming for a third term and will take on Republican Darren Bailey in November. Lieutenant Gov. Juliana Stratton won the Democratic Senate Primary and will face Republican attorney Don Tracy in the general election to …
TODAY · March 18, 2026
Don Tracy wins Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Illinois primary electionDon Tracy wins Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Illinois primary election
Abcnews.com · March 18, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Illinois Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Juliana Stratton (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+15.6.
What do the polls say in the Illinois Senate race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Public Policy Polling (2026-10-01), showed D+13.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+15.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Illinois Senate race?
Juliana Stratton is the Democratic candidate; Don Tracy is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Illinois Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Illinois Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.