Illinois Governor
JB Pritzker (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Illinois Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 19 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+19.0 — a 100% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Hyundai Translead ups Illinois investment to $600M, adding 1,250 jobs to original planThe transportation equipment manufacturer will now create 3,750 jobs at two production sites in Joliet. Gov. JB Pritzker called it the largest job creation announcement in Illinois in decades.
Biztoc.com · October 22, 2026
Bill Ackman blasts ‘radicalized, anti-American’ Democratic Party and ‘disasters’ Pritzker, NewsomBillionaire hedge funder Bill Ackman says the Democratic Party is in the worst shape in its history – and thinks likely 2028 presidential contenders like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are “disasters.”
New York Post · October 20, 2026
JB Pritzker thinks AI could help us live to 100 — or threaten us like nukesToday, I’m talking with Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who has a lot of thoughts about AI, tech, and privacy. If you’ve been listening to the show, you know that one of my running theories is that those issues are driving a big and maybe kind of unexpected p…
Biztoc.com · October 19, 2026
JB Pritzker thinks AI could help us live to 100 — or threaten us like nukesToday, I’m talking with Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who has a lot of thoughts about AI, tech, and privacy. If you’ve been listening to the show, you know that one of my running theories is that those issues are driving a big and maybe kind of unexpected po…
The Verge · October 19, 2026
The midterms could make or break these politicians' 2028 presidential ambitionsNEW YORK (AP) — As most of the political world focuses on next month's midterm elections, the shadow primary for the 2028 presidential contest is quietly playing out in public view. Democratic and Republican presidential prospects have been crisscrossing th…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 9, 2026
2026 Election Questionnaire: Darren Bailey, Illinois GovernorDarren Bailey: The first priority must be bringing property taxes down. Everywhere I go, I hear from people whose NO. 1 concern is property taxes. We have to stop talking about this issue and work on real solutions. Property taxes are out of control.
Shawlocal.com · October 19, 2026
Illinois has a real winnerThe Republicans in Illinois must be desperate — they’re running a creationist, who runs a private school for creationists, against Governor JB Pritzker. This guy, Darren Bailey, is pathetic, and the Pritzker campaign keeps hammering him with dinosaurs. Were y…
Freethoughtblogs.com · September 29, 2026- Ill. GOP Doesn't Want Trump's Candidate To Win
Illinois GOP's Real Problem Isn't Money. It Doesn't Want Trump's Candidate To Win With just over 40 days until Election Day for the midterms, the Illinois Republican Party has yet to provide a meaningful financial boost to the man carrying its banner for gove…
Freerepublic.com · September 18, 2026 
Trump backs Darren Bailey for Illinois governor as GOP candidate has sought to distance himself from presidentPresident Donald Trump has endorsed Darren Bailey for governor, a move that undercuts the Republican nominee's attempts to distance himself from a president unpopular in Illinois and whose backing contributed to Bailey's loss to Democrat JB Pritzker in 2022. …
Biztoc.com · September 14, 2026
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The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Illinois Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors JB Pritzker (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+19.0.
What do the polls say in the Illinois Governor race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from ActiVote (2026-10-22), showed D+18.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+19.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Illinois Governor race?
JB Pritzker is the Democratic candidate; Darren Bailey is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Illinois Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Illinois Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.