Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
R+8.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | KRC Research | R+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science | R+8.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | R+9.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+11.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 1083 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 1998-10-28 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 1998-10-28 | 402 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| KRC Research | 1998-10-27 | 400 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 907 | R+20.0 | 17 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 1998-10-19 | 402 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-19 | 625 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| KRC Research | 1998-10-06 | 400 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science | 1998-10-04 | 630 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 1998-09-29 | 402 | R+11.0 | 8 |