Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+21.3 — a 98% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
'The Message Is Pretty Clear,' Says Sanders After Progressive Wins in NYDemocratic socialist firebrand US Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday welcomed a wave of progressive primary victories in New York as proof that Americans "are sick and tired of status quo politics" and "want to end the corrupt campaign finance system, which ena…
Common Dreams · June 24, 2026
Democrats Fume Over Trump's Moms.gov Website Promoting Anti-Abortion CentersEleven members of the Senate Democratic Caucus on Wednesday urged US President Donald Trump and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to “cease using federal resources to direct people to anti-abortion crisis pregnancy centers" via a gover…
Common Dreams · June 24, 2026
‘Slash the Pentagon Act’ Would Cap Trump’s Military Budget To Fund Healthcare, Education, and MoreDemocratic US Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts took aim Monday at President Donald Trump’s illegal war of choice on Iran and request for a record $1.5 trillion in total military-related spending authorization by introducing legislation that would cap the Penta…
Antiwar.com · June 17, 2026
'Slash the Pentagon Act' Would Cap Trump's Military Budget to Fund Healthcare, Education, and MoreDemocratic US Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts took aim Monday at President Donald Trump's illegal war of choice on Iran and request for a record $1.5 trillion in total military-related spending authorization by introducing legislation that would cap the Penta…
Common Dreams · June 17, 2026
WATCH: Senate Democrat Twists Himself in Knots to Avoid Endorsing Graham Platner in Awkward CNN HitSen. Ed Markey (D-MA) twisted himself in knots to avoid endorsing the scandal-plagued candidate Graham Platner (ME) in a wild CNN hit on Thursday. The post WATCH: Senate Democrat Twists Himself in Knots to Avoid Endorsing Graham Platner in Awkward CNN Hit fir…
Mediaite · June 4, 2026
Massachusetts Senate candidates trade sharp attacks in fiery debate as incumbent Markey skips eventRep. Seth Moulton and Republican John Deaton clashed over Trump, immigration and Israel in a fiery Massachusetts Senate debate Tuesday night.
Fox News · June 17, 2026
3 takeaways from the debate between Senate candidates Seth Moulton and John Deaton3 takeaways from the debate between Senate candidates Seth Moulton and John Deatonboston.com
Boston.com · June 17, 2026
Former Ripple CTO Schwartz Sends XRP To John Deaton Senate CampaignFormer Ripple CTO David Schwartz has sent an undisclosed amount of XRP to John Deaton’s US Senate campaign, giving Deaton’s latest fundraising push a direct signal of support from one of the XRP community’s most recognizable figures. Schwartz Donates XRP To D…
Bitcoinist · May 18, 2026
Ret. Mass. judge, Deaton back DiZoglio’s legal efforts to audit LegislatureState Auditor Diana DiZoglio’s legal battle with legislative leadership and AG Andrea Campbell over a voter-approved audit of the Legislature is gaining support from a retired Trial Court judge and U.S. Senate candidate John Deaton.
Boston Herald · February 16, 2026
MassGOP endorses John Deaton for U.S. SenateAttorney and cryptocurrency advocate John Deaton has won the endorsement of the Massachusetts Republican Party in his bid for U.S. Senate.
Boston Herald · November 21, 2025
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Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-23 | 623 | D+16.0 |
| Suffolk University | 2026-06-12 | 500 | D+25.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-20 | 603 | D+23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | 616 | D+29.0 |
| Cygnal | 2026-01-25 | 800 | D+24.0 |