Massachusetts Senate
Ed Markey (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 22 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+22.4 — a 99% Democratic win.
Latest news
Top 5 most heated moments as progressives spar over who is further to the left in final Dem Senate debateEd Markey and opponent Seth Moulton clashed over transgender athletes and abolishing ICE in their final Senate debate in Massachusetts.
Fox News · August 21, 2026
AOC endorses Sen Ed Markey as incumbent faces Dem US Senate primary challenge from Rep Seth MoultonRep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorses incumbent Sen. Ed Markey as he faces off against Rep. Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Democratic U.S. Senate primary.
Fox News · August 21, 2026
Democrats’ Push for Generational Change Could Hit a Wall in MassachusettsSenator Ed Markey led Representative Seth Moulton in two new polls of the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts, as the longtime incumbent seeks to hold off another generational challenge. An anti-incumbent wave has swept through the Democratic primaries…
Biztoc.com · August 18, 2026
80-Year-Old Ed Markey May Trounce Another Young ChallengerRecent polls show Massachusetts senator Ed Markey with a sizable lead over Representative Seth Moulton with only weeks to go before the primary election.
New York Magazine · August 18, 2026
San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria urges Congress to extend protected status for HaitiansThe bill introduced by Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey would have the Secretary of Homeland Security extend TPS to Haitians through March 2029.
KPBS · August 6, 2026
Massachusetts Senate candidates trade sharp attacks in fiery debate as incumbent Markey skips eventRep. Seth Moulton and Republican John Deaton clashed over Trump, immigration and Israel in a fiery Massachusetts Senate debate Tuesday night.
Fox News · June 17, 2026
3 takeaways from the debate between Senate candidates Seth Moulton and John Deaton3 takeaways from the debate between Senate candidates Seth Moulton and John Deatonboston.com
Boston.com · June 17, 2026
Former Ripple CTO Schwartz Sends XRP To John Deaton Senate CampaignFormer Ripple CTO David Schwartz has sent an undisclosed amount of XRP to John Deaton’s US Senate campaign, giving Deaton’s latest fundraising push a direct signal of support from one of the XRP community’s most recognizable figures. Schwartz Donates XRP To D…
Bitcoinist · May 18, 2026
Ret. Mass. judge, Deaton back DiZoglio’s legal efforts to audit LegislatureState Auditor Diana DiZoglio’s legal battle with legislative leadership and AG Andrea Campbell over a voter-approved audit of the Legislature is gaining support from a retired Trial Court judge and U.S. Senate candidate John Deaton.
Boston Herald · February 16, 2026
MassGOP endorses John Deaton for U.S. SenateAttorney and cryptocurrency advocate John Deaton has won the endorsement of the Massachusetts Republican Party in his bid for U.S. Senate.
Boston Herald · November 21, 2025
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ed Markey (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+22.4.
What do the polls say in the Massachusetts Senate race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov (2026-08-12), showed D+21.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+22.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race?
Ed Markey is the Democratic candidate; John Deaton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Massachusetts Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Ed Markey's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Massachusetts Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.