VotePredictor
all races

Massachusetts Senate

Ed Markey (D) vs John Deaton (R)

Forecast — win probability
Ed Markey (D)
98%
(R) John Deaton
2%
Safe D · model margin D+21.3

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+21.3 — a 98% Democratic win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul2% R98% D
Democrats 98% Republicans 2%

Latest news

Ed Markey (D)
John Deaton (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (5)

PollsterDatenPoll
University of New Hampshire2026-06-23623D+16.0
Suffolk University2026-06-12500D+25.0
University of New Hampshire2026-04-20603D+23.0
University of New Hampshire2026-02-16616D+29.0
Cygnal2026-01-25800D+24.0