Massachusetts Senate
Ed Markey (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 25 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+25.0 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
The FDA’s Overton Window ProblemYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington The FDA’s Overton window problemOn Thursday, Republican Senator Susan Collins, a …
The New Republic · September 25, 2026
Centrists Won’t Tell You Where “Moderating” on Trans Rights Ends UpIf the Democrats lose the upcoming midterm elections, our path out of competitive authoritarianism gets a lot longer, or disappears altogether. The political winds are at the Democrats’ backs, but the structure of our electoral system cuts against them. It co…
The New Republic · September 23, 2026
Transcript: How Purple-State Democrats Should Talk About Trans IssuesThis is a lightly edited transcript of the September 16 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: Good morning. I’m Perry Bacon. I’m the host of Right Now on The New Repub…
The New Republic · September 17, 2026
Top Health Nominees Break With RFK Jr. as Measles Cases SurgeTwo nominees on course to help lead America’s public health policy have distanced themselves from Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy and his anti-vaccine positions.Dr. Nicole Saphier and HHS counselor Chris Klomp are on track to become t…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Ed Markey showed Democrats how to defend trans people and win electionsOpinion: The Massachusetts senator’s primary win shows that voters may be over politicians willing to sacrifice minority groups in pursuit of an imaginary middle ground, writes Josh Ackley.
Advocate.com · September 3, 2026
New Poll Shows Ed Markey's Support Slipping in Deep Blue MassachusettsSurvey finds overwhelming desire for a new generation of leadership and significant opening for independent Republican challenger John Deaton BOSTON, Sept. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- As Massachusetts voters turn their attention to the November general election, …
PRNewswire · September 3, 2026
80-year-old establishment Democrat trounces 'moderate' challenger in Senate primary for MassachusettsThe establishment of the Democratic Party was able to easily fend off a "moderate" challenge in the party's primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who has been in either the House or the Senate for five decades, …
TheBlaze · September 2, 2026
Massachusetts Senate candidates trade sharp attacks in fiery debate as incumbent Markey skips eventRep. Seth Moulton and Republican John Deaton clashed over Trump, immigration and Israel in a fiery Massachusetts Senate debate Tuesday night.
Fox News · June 17, 2026
3 takeaways from the debate between Senate candidates Seth Moulton and John Deaton3 takeaways from the debate between Senate candidates Seth Moulton and John Deatonboston.com
Boston.com · June 17, 2026
Former Ripple CTO Schwartz Sends XRP To John Deaton Senate CampaignFormer Ripple CTO David Schwartz has sent an undisclosed amount of XRP to John Deaton’s US Senate campaign, giving Deaton’s latest fundraising push a direct signal of support from one of the XRP community’s most recognizable figures. Schwartz Donates XRP To D…
Bitcoinist · May 18, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ed Markey (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+25.0.
What do the polls say in the Massachusetts Senate race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from MassINC Polling Group (2026-09-22), showed D+26.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+25.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race?
Ed Markey is the Democratic candidate; John Deaton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Massachusetts Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Ed Markey's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Massachusetts Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.