Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+25.6 — a 99% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Healey plans appeal of Trump's denial of disaster declaration request for February blizzardMassachusetts Gov. Maura Healey on Thursday pledged to appeal a decision from President Donald Trump’s administration denying a request to declare the February blizzard that dumped more than 2 feet of snow a major disaster.
The Sun Chronicle · Today
MNA Nurses Prepare for End of Brigham Strike and Noon Rally with Senator Markey Thursday, as MGB Home Care Clinicians Continue 7-Day StrikeBrigham nurses and MGB Home Care clinicians have told the Governor and MGB they are prepared to negotiate until contract resolutions are reached BOSTON, Mass. , July 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Following a meeting in the office of Gov. Maura Healey on Wednesday a…
PRNewswire · Yesterday- WATCH: A Young Celtics Fan’s Tears Led to the Sweetest Jaylen Brown Surprise!
When NBA star Jaylen Brown was traded from the Boston Celtics to the Philadelphia 76ers, the sports world was certainly thrown for a loop. But for one young Celtics fan, Brown leaving the team marked his first-ever heartbreak at only six years old. In a po…
The Root · July 8, 2026
Massachusetts woman steps in after 'shameful' Dem governor boycotts Great American State FairMassachusetts women pays her own way to the Great American State Fair after Gov. Maura Healey and other Democratic governors boycott Freedom 250 event.
Fox News · July 3, 2026
Renewable Energy Policies Linked to Rising Energy Costs, Economic Strain, Report SaysA growing body of evidence indicates that aggressive renewable energy mandates are contributing to higher electricity prices and economic strain in several regions, according to recent analyses and government data. In Massachusetts, a coalition of climate act…
Naturalnews.com · July 3, 2026
Pro-life Minogue vows to 'uphold the law' if elected governorSaying state spending was "blowing up," Republican candidate for governor Mike Minogue on Sunday pledged to audit the whole state budget, claimed public appropriations are being squandered on "waste and fraud," and waved off allegations by Gov. Maura Healey t…
The Sun Chronicle · May 4, 2026
Mike Minogue heads to Mass GOP convention ready to take on Maura Healey: 'She's bankrupting our state'Mike Minogue, GOP gubernatorial candidate in Massachusetts, brings military and business executive experience as he challenges incumbent Maura Healey
Fox News · April 24, 2026
GOP gubernatorial candidates in ‘super battle’ over Minogue’s super delegatesThe three Republican candidates for Massachusetts governor are battling it out over whether MIke Minogue “bought” 20 super delegates ahead of April’s MassGOP Convention after his campaign sent $100,000 to the party.
Boston Herald · February 16, 2026
'Rogue' Republican 'catching flak' after saying he doesn't identify with GOPMassachusetts Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Minogue is "catching flak" from his two primary challengers as he tries to distance himself from identifying with the GOP, reports Tim Dunn in the Boston Herald.Minogue, a West Point graduate and Army Rang…
Raw Story · December 1, 2025
Combat veteran turned CEO has a new mission: Flip governor's office in blue stateRepublican veteran Mike Minogue joins the Massachusetts gubernatorial race as the third major GOP candidate challenging Democratic Gov. Maura Healey in 2025.
Fox News · October 1, 2025
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Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | 2026-06-12 | 500 | D+25.0 |
| Polity Research Consulting | 2026-05-07 | 608 | D+27.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-20 | 599 | D+20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | 620 | D+29.0 |