Massachusetts Governor
Maura Healey (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 22 points in the projection. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+22.2 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Climate Reality Hits MassachusettsDemocratic Gov. Maura Healey pleads for more natural gas, quick. What changed her mind?
Biztoc.com · October 7, 2026
'Energy emergency' fires up Massachusetts governor's raceGov. Maura Healey declared a “state of energy emergency” Monday as she announced increased home heating assistance, while her rival immediately fired back at her “last-minute” announcement.
Boston Herald · October 5, 2026- Democrat Governor Who Sued Exxon Over Climate Change Asks Trump Administration To Fast-Track Gas Pipeline
Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, who sued ExxonMobil over climate change, is pressing the Trump administration to speed approval of a gas pipeline expansion. Healey asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright in a letter Thursday to ensure that federal rev…
Freerepublic.com · October 4, 2026 
Healey to feds: Step on the gas!Gov. Maura Healey is asking the Trump administration to hasten the expansion of natural gas into Massachusetts.
Boston Herald · October 1, 2026
Governor Healey and President Kornbluth launch MIT Future FestMIT Future Fest launched with a visit from Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey. Featuring talks from leading MIT scholars, panel discussions, open labs, exhibitions, performances, screenings, and more, the five-day event adds up to a demonstration of MIT rese…
Mit.edu · October 1, 2026
- Cape Cod restaurant hit with harassment, hoax 911 calls after hosting GOP fundraiser
A popular Cape Cod restaurant has been inundated by online threats and harassment, even a hoax 911 call resulting in a massive emergency response, in retaliation for hosting a fundraiser for two Massachusetts Republican political candidates. Montano’s Restaur…
Freerepublic.com · September 27, 2026 
Self-funded CEO claims GOP nomination to challenge Massachusetts Democrat’s second-term bidMike Minogue won 70% at the Massachusetts GOP convention and defeated former MBTA executive Brian Shortsleeve to take on Gov. Maura Healey.
Fox News · September 2, 2026- GOP gubernatorial candidate fighting to flip blue state unveils healthcare plan to lower costs, expand access
Massachusetts GOP hopeful Mike Minogue outlines a healthcare overhaul centered on innovation, outpatient care, mental health and cutting waste.
Fox News · July 31, 2026 
Pro-life Minogue vows to 'uphold the law' if elected governorSaying state spending was "blowing up," Republican candidate for governor Mike Minogue on Sunday pledged to audit the whole state budget, claimed public appropriations are being squandered on "waste and fraud," and waved off allegations by Gov. Maura Healey t…
The Sun Chronicle · May 4, 2026- Mike Minogue heads to Mass GOP convention ready to take on Maura Healey: 'She's bankrupting our state'
Mike Minogue, GOP gubernatorial candidate in Massachusetts, brings military and business executive experience as he challenges incumbent Maura Healey
Fox News · April 24, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Maura Healey (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+22.2.
What do the polls say in the Massachusetts Governor race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from MassINC Polling Group (2026-09-22), showed D+21.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+22.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race?
Maura Healey is the Democratic candidate; Mike Minogue is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Massachusetts Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Massachusetts Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.