Massachusetts Governor
Maura Healey (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 26 points in the projection. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+25.6 — a 99% Democratic win.
Latest news
National Media Skip Extreme Pro-Abortion Law in MassachusettsOn Aug. 10, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey signed a bill allowing abortion at any point in pregnancy. Abortion advocates call it “closing the gaps” in “abortion rights protections.” Abortion foes call it “abortion until birth,” making it legal to dismember f…
Daily Signal · Yesterday
Massachusetts’ New Abortion Law Is A TragedyBy MELANIE ISRAEL via The Daily Signal | August 13, 2026 This Monday in a crowded room of people beaming with pride and excitement, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey smiled for the cameras as she enthusiastically signed legislation legalizing abortion for any r…
Biztoc.com · August 18, 2026- [Catholic Caucus] The Friends of Governor Maura Healey
[Catholic Caucus] The Friends of Governor Maura Healey The following news analysis is courtesy of the Catholic Action League of Massachusetts…Catholic social media — in America and around the globe — is reacting with horror and disgust at the scene of women c…
Freerepublic.com · August 17, 2026 
ICE Boston arrests Brazilian illegal alien wanted for murder days before Gov Healy signed Protect ActICE arrested a Brazilian fugitive convicted of aggravated murder at a Massachusetts courthouse just days before Gov. Maura Healey signed the PROTECT Act.
Fox News · August 17, 2026
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey Responds to Excommunication Calls After Legalizing Abortions Until BirthHealey, who identifies as lesbian and is a self-proclaimed Catholic, signed a bill allowing unborn babies to be aborted throughout pregnancy and striking down the state’s previous 24-week limit. The post Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey Responds to Excommunica…
Breitbart News · August 17, 2026
GOP gubernatorial candidate fighting to flip blue state unveils healthcare plan to lower costs, expand accessMassachusetts GOP hopeful Mike Minogue outlines a healthcare overhaul centered on innovation, outpatient care, mental health and cutting waste.
Fox News · July 31, 2026
Pro-life Minogue vows to 'uphold the law' if elected governorSaying state spending was "blowing up," Republican candidate for governor Mike Minogue on Sunday pledged to audit the whole state budget, claimed public appropriations are being squandered on "waste and fraud," and waved off allegations by Gov. Maura Healey t…
The Sun Chronicle · May 4, 2026- Mike Minogue heads to Mass GOP convention ready to take on Maura Healey: 'She's bankrupting our state'
Mike Minogue, GOP gubernatorial candidate in Massachusetts, brings military and business executive experience as he challenges incumbent Maura Healey
Fox News · April 24, 2026 
GOP gubernatorial candidates in ‘super battle’ over Minogue’s super delegatesThe three Republican candidates for Massachusetts governor are battling it out over whether MIke Minogue “bought” 20 super delegates ahead of April’s MassGOP Convention after his campaign sent $100,000 to the party.
Boston Herald · February 16, 2026
'Rogue' Republican 'catching flak' after saying he doesn't identify with GOPMassachusetts Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Minogue is "catching flak" from his two primary challengers as he tries to distance himself from identifying with the GOP, reports Tim Dunn in the Boston Herald.Minogue, a West Point graduate and Army Rang…
Raw Story · December 1, 2025
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Maura Healey (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+25.6.
What do the polls say in the Massachusetts Governor race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from Suffolk University (2026-06-12), showed D+25.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+25.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor race?
Maura Healey is the Democratic candidate; Mike Minogue is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Massachusetts Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Massachusetts Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.